Comparing OSU/Oregon with CFP Data

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stlbuckeye15's picture

Good stuff. I agree that we were pretty evenly matched. It certainly wasn't all dominance from Oregon. OSU got some key stops and moved the ball well on them. Need to finish stronger and limit mistakes but I think we would take them in a rematch. I mean realistically, I doubt our D could do much worse than they did that game.

"In weightlifting, I don't think sudden, uncontrolled urination should automatically disqualify you."
-Jack Handey

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pv's picture

Simply put are we capable of beating them bad, yes. Are they capable of beaing us bad, no they are not. Case closed.

fremontguy

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firethecannon's picture

I’m just some random guy but imo: 

OSU -4 to -5 in Indy

OSU -6.5 to -7.5 in Columbus 

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allinosu's picture

Good topic with good material and point but I feel a defense fails when it gives up close to 500 yards. I really thought no one would be able to do that to this defense. I guess I was naive..

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Ohio State can’t allow a good QB that much time to throw. Our pass rush is not very good right now. If there is a rematch, we need to get to Gabriel and hit him a few times. The guy is 5’8” at best. Pressure will force him into mistakes. If we don’t get a pass rush in a rematch, expect another good game from Gabriel.

Also, the Oregon defense wasn’t that great either. If not for the OPI penalty or the refs not penalizing Oregon for 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct, Ohio State would be celebrating a great victory this week.

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bull1214's picture

It was 2 good teams battling to a close result. Win or lose, that’s what it was. The national perception is more in line with that than the local perception. one team came out on top but neither one completely out played the other. I’m hoping to see part deux!

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buckeye_in_WI's picture

We lost by 1 point despite 2 turnovers (one of them on a crazy kickoff I've never seen done before), despite more penalties (3 false starts on 1 drive included in that), on the road and if our qb slides 1 second sooner we were 1 long FG from winning the damn thing.

A few days have given me the perspective that they didn't play anywhere close to their best and still almost beat a top 3 team on the road.

This team will be dangerous if they can work out the penalties and don't get unlucky with the turnovers.

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Calamity Hoe's picture

Agree with this a hundred percent. 

That said, Oregon's QB had all night - basically unmolested - to throw the ball. It would be GREAT if Larry Johnson and Jim Knowles could get on the same page re: pressuring the QB. 

Christianity, if false, is of no importance, and, if true, is of infinite importance.
The one thing it cannot be is moderately important. — C. S. Lewis

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WeSkrongDen's picture

OSU was supposed to be better than your typical CFP team though this year. They were supposed to be elite. The defense especially was supposed to be elite

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bull1214's picture

This year will test what elite means going forward. Texas is probably considered elite right now but a loss to Georgia wouldn’t be too surprising. Your list of elite teams will be dwindling undoubtedly. 

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Maestro's picture

Day, Kelly and Knowles are playing a 60 minute game.  It's uncomfortable to sit through, but their formula is going to work most of the time.  Sometimes the other team is going to make a better play, but I believe the Buckeye coaches are going to put the players in a position to be most successful over the long haul of a 60 minute battle.  

OSU only plays a couple of full 60 minute games each season.  They aren't going to all go our way.  This is a tough reality to accept for most of us.

vacuuming sucks

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WeSkrongDen's picture

Ohio State has better players then Oregon and they were out coached.

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Maestro's picture

Oh, do go on please.

vacuuming sucks

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stlbuckeye15's picture

From the Hodgepodge:

"If we’re being 100 percent honest, if the offensive pass interference never gets called on Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State wins with a walk-off field goal, I think Dan Lanning gets torched pretty badly by local and national pundits. Oregon left a lot of points on the table, starting with a botched PAT following the first touchdown, then Lanning opted to chase points and go for a two-point conversion in the first half, which was some Big Game James energy. Lanning also went for it on 4th-and-goal from the two in a one-score game in the third quarter instead of taking the free three points. Not that OSU also didn’t leave its fair share of points on the board, but it’s also hard to sit here and say it was a masterclass job all-around by Lanning either."

It's not Day's fault that Judkins turned the ball over at like the 30 yard line or that Burke played his worst game as a Buckeye or that JT missed an assignment. Some of it falls on the players too.

Oregon spent a lot of NIL money building that roster. If there's a talent gap it's basically negligible.

"In weightlifting, I don't think sudden, uncontrolled urination should automatically disqualify you."
-Jack Handey

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WeSkrongDen's picture

Oregon beat Idaho by 10 and Boise by 3. There's a talent gap.

Oregon had a wide open guy on that 4th and 2 who Gabriel didn't see. Just an FYI for the people who keep saying Oregon and Gabriel played a perfect game. The defense was that bad. The scheme was terrible. Everything about the Defense was embarrassing

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BuckZilla's picture

Yes, plain and simple, our inability on D to stop big plays and pressure the QB was, in my simple mind, the biggest issue. It's baffling that we looked that bad.

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stlbuckeye15's picture

The transitive property doesn't work in college football. Oregon didn't need to break tendencies or do an onside kick against Boise State. They (like most teams) treated the OSU game differently.

The defense underperformed, no doubt. But it's not like Oregon's D was lock down either. We lost by 1, not 100

"In weightlifting, I don't think sudden, uncontrolled urination should automatically disqualify you."
-Jack Handey

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WeSkrongDen's picture

It's not transitive property, it's that Oregon is being overrated by this board because they beat OSU. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oregon drops a regular season game

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BigAppleBuckeye's picture

M? If that Dline can mount pressure on Gabriel.

If your opponent knocks you on your ass, honor the game and RESPECT him. But Gentlemen, no bastard ever won a football game by getting knocked on his ass. You won it by knocking the other poor dumb bastard on his ass and making HIM respect YOU!!

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UtahGetMeTwo's picture

So I wasn't listening to the TV broadcast, but how did they explain that Judkins "fumble"? He still had it when his shoulder hit the ground, and after that is when the Oregon guy ripped it out of his hands? How did they explain he wasn't down?  I was positive that was getting overturned, but it didn't.

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Maestro's picture

Ya, we're talking about 2 of the top 4 or 5 rosters in CFB.  People need to get out of their bubble/echo chamber a little bit before acting like Oregon is not a similar program to OSU in the recent past.

vacuuming sucks

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WeSkrongDen's picture

I promise OSU gets more players drafted than Oregon this year

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oztintacius's picture

OSU not have better players on the OLine; and on DL, theirs is the only one that made a play, without their best player. Harmon probably gets drafted higher than Williams, their tackles are both NFL players.

MSU coaches told some CFB writers Oregon was better in the trenches after seeing them in back to back weeks - looks correct to me.

OSU top to bottom is better, but there are plenty of positions where Oregon is better. We will see if their depth holds up over the rest of the season.

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BuckZilla's picture

I've been looking for the stat I saw somewhere on average drive start. For OSU it was like our own 26...theirs was like their own 40 something. The fumble and onside kick had alot to do with this. We have got to get some better drive starts in these types of games. D not holding field position was also a big contributing factor. We basically gave them points on two of their drives, even though on at least one we kept them out of the end zone.

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Bukirob's picture

Can we just stop calling the kick an onsided when it WAS NOT the kicker is QUOTED saying it was a squib kick and it hit the OSU player instead that ball was kicked hard enough that had it NOT hit our up player it would have rolled to at least inside the 15

You WIN with people.

 

 

WW Hayes

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jefferson970's picture

You believe that? He has to say that because it’s against the rules and they gamed the system. You have to announce an onside kick and they didn’t. It was on purpose. 

Hmm

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BuckTD's picture

Not true. That’s only an NFL rule that started this year. 100% legal to do

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BuckIDave's picture

Only losing by 1 point to a legitimate #3 team in their stadium is no shame. I just would like to see the defense improve. It shouldn't be acceptable that good teams should just automatically rack up 30 or more points on the Buckeyes. A few more stops, please. It is very doable, especially when it's 3rd and long. Have to get off the field and make the other team's punter work a little bit. Too many times we've seen our offense trying to overcome the defense's liabilities. 31 points should be enough to win "big games", or at least the great majority of them.

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UtahGetMeTwo's picture

Our D line needs more hurries/hits/sacks.  

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pv's picture

Since when does admitting cheating, 12 men on field, not get a response from national media, Big10 or NCAA?

fremontguy

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firethecannon's picture

I have good news for you 

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Five Bikes's picture

In season action.  Delightful.  Change the rule - so what?  If the rule was deemed to be 'gamed-able,' why was it not changed prior?  This is the same crap as the NCAA deciding, after Michigan's 'escapades' were discovered,  that next time by golly, they'll do something in-season.  
What are they gonna do?  Negate the results of the game and give OSU the victory, because the rules had a foreseeable loophole?  Seriously?  What's the point?  No one else will try it again this year, anyway.

Senior Buck

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DaiTheFlu's picture

I'm less worried about the yards and points than I am in our ability to get stops in critical situations. Which is essentially what has happened in each of our several big game losses. Had we given up 500 yards and, say, 28 points, assuming there was at least one stalled Oregon drive, we are having a different conversation.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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firethecannon's picture

I agree they needed to get off the field more. But to contest it a bit, Oregon had points on 6 of 11 drives: 
- 3 punts

- 1 turnover on downs

- 1 missed FG

- 2 FGs

- 4 TDs

We had points of 5 of 10 (4 TDs, 1 FG)

Clearly we fell a stop short, but the difference maker is two stolen possessions giving them extra shots: the onside(ish) kick and the Judkins fumble. 

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pcola_buckeye's picture

This is a good breakdown!  There is no doubt that the OSU defense could've/should've played better, but even so, two stolen possessions (both on 'flukey' plays) make a big difference in an otherwise very close game!

"College football cannot be explained by science or religion, which is why it remains perfect." ~ Ramzy Nasrallah

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DaiTheFlu's picture

Agree, we did get some stops early and then the late 4th and goal stop. But we again failed to get a stop when the game is on the line, just like Clemson 2019, UGA 2022, Michigan last year and now Oregon. The modern defense trend, especially in high level talent matchups, definitely seems to be "bend but don't break". Unfortunately our big game defenses have tended towards "bend then break repeatedly". I think it stems from the DL and lack of disruption, which allows elite playmakers to eventually get open, where elite QBs are then able to get the ball to them.

You are absolutely correct about the turnover and onsides. Even with the defensive failures, those would have made the difference. The margins are always miniscule in a game between these types of teams. Eventually we have to find a way to come out on top.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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ISURVIVEDCOOPER's picture

I wonder if there was any hangover from the Iowa game for our DL... it's almost like magic that they disappeared against the Oregon OL... were they playing so banged up that they couldn't make an impact when it mattered the most? Something just feels totally fishy about the whole thing. Either that or our DL were not developed enough...

"I don't apologize for anything.  When I make a mistake, I take the blame and go on from there." - Woody Hayes

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oztintacius's picture

There's probably some truth in this. Look at what Iowa did to Washington the week after they played a physical Michigan team.

The interior held up well, most of Oregon's rushing success was outside.

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Keze's picture

The takeaway for me is that these are evenly matched teams then it comes down to coaching, game plan, adjustments,etc. Equal talent means equal talent but the Buckeyes had more talent than the  Ducks so from that Day got out coached again in a top game.

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B1Gbuckeye's picture

I have less of a problem than others on this board with this loss. The season isn’t over people quit freaking out. 

But if giving up yards and points is the norm in these high stakes games, then takeaways and generating negative plays have to occur. Giving up explosive plays while only getting 2 TFL’s and 0 turnovers like Saturday won’t cut it in match up games. 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

My only concern is the loss of Simmons. That could be huge.

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