Nebraska doesn't have a very good offense (83rd in SP+), I'm not sure we will learn very much about the defense from that game. The Huskers D is legit, it will be similar to playing Iowa. Penn State is a different test, but I don't think they have the playmakers on the outside to threaten the Buckeyes D the way Oregon did (they seem to rely on TE1 + RB1 &RB2). There are probably only a few teams in college football that can, Oregon being one of them, plus Texas, Alabama, Miami, maybe Georgia?

I agree with the spirit of your post about being patient with Day, but to play devil's advocate, Saban built his way up in the coaching profession, similar to Urban, going from Toledo to Michigan State to taking over an LSU program that had gone 7-15 in the previous two seasons before he arrived. He won a natty in his fourth year at LSU. It would have been damn near impossible for anyone to follow that career arc and have won a natty sooner. In contrast, Day took over a plug and play program stacked with NFL talent across the board and ready to compete for a national title in year 1. It would have been realistic for someone to have followed in his career arc and have won a national title (or 2) by now.

I posted this in a different thread. The 2019 defense was made to look pretty ordinary the last three games of the season against TTUN, Wisconsin and Clemson, giving up over 400 yards a game and over 6 yards a play over that stretch. I feel like so many people just remembers how dominant they were through the first 11 games and forget how they faded down the stretch.

Shouldn't Young getting double teamed free someone else up? If it were that easy, teams would just always double team their opponents best player and take him out of the game. Why did the overall defensive production nose dive over the final three games (giving up over 6 yards per play the final three games)? The offense put up a lot of points and scored fast early in the season, yet the defence was still dominant. Why did that change the last three games? Most likely explanation to me is that their scheme and talent advantage worked against overmatched opponents, but not against better offenses where the talent matchup was more even. Okudah played every snap but one. Forced the fumble that should have resulted in a scoop 6.

Watching a DL and entire defence stacked with NFL talent looking so ordinary this past weekend brought back flashbacks for me of the final 3 games of 2019. After looking like a potential all-time great unit for the first 11 games of the 2019 season (never giving up more than 275 yards per game or 4.8 yards per play), Ohio State's final three opponents (TTUN, Wisconsin and Clemson) averaged over 400 yards and more than 6 yards per play. Chase Young didn't record a sack during the final three games (after racking up 16.5 in the previous 9 games), as the Buckeyes as a team struggled to generate pressure against the better offenses it faced down the stretch (2.3 sacks per games over the final three games vs. 4.3 over the first 11). People often talk about the 2019 defence and Chase Young's dominance, but they faded down the stretch against better competition.

I wouldn't say no margin of error in terms of making the playoffs. In terms of winning the Big Ten, yes, I agree The goal should absolutely be 11-1, however 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Penn State, i.e. both top 5 ish teams on the road (not to mention one of the losses by 1 point) and the Buckeyes are getting into the playoffs 100% of the time. Of course they'd have almost no shot at the conference title game and would have to play an extra playoff round, but they'd be a dangerous team that no one would want to face.

Goes to show that great coaches are going to lose lots of big games, since they consistently put their teams in position to play in big games and, by their nature, these games are close to 50%/50% matchups. Saban lost some big ones against Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, TTUN etc.

The main point is that the 54 points Ohio State scored was overwhelmingly due to Iowa's inept offense. I would not say the Buckeyes offense sliced the Hawkeyes up, more like the Buckeyes D sliced them up, by essentially forcing 9 turnovers (6 + 3 on downs). Ohio State had 4 drives that started in Iowa's territory that ended in field goals. Two of them the Buckeyes didn't even manage a first down. For the Iowa defence, that's close to mission impossible asking them to stop the Buckeyes when they are consistently starting with the ball deep inside of Iowa's territory. I would say they did ok, especially considering the stats Stroud and the Buckeyes put up that year. In 2021 Iowa did almost the same thing to Maryland, clobbering them 51-14 after forcing 7 turnovers. If a team's offense is completely overmatched, there's only so much the defence can do.

The blowout two years ago was mostly on the Iowa offense. Their defence held Stroud and the Buckeyes to 360 yards on 62 plays. You normally wouldn't expect to score anywhere close to 54 points off that. But Iowa's offense had 6 turnovers + 3 turnovers on downs which the Buckeyes turned into 37 points, with scoring drives of 1, 4, 17, 24 and 15 yards + a pick six. Iowa had 158 yards of offense. The one TD they got was a scoop 6 by their D. There's no defence in the country that can be competitive against a team like Ohio State when its offense is shooting itself in foot and tilting the field in the wrong direction the entire game.

Tresselball: 02 Miami, 06 TTUN, 09 Oregon, 7 top5 finishes in 10 seasons, 9-1 Vs TTUN, first national title for Buckeyes in over 30 years

Agree Cleydaybuck. The 2004 Buckeyes were actually pretty good by the end of the season, winning 5 of their last 6, including the one that mattered most. Once Teddy Ginn started getting touches and Troy Smith took over at QB, it was a completely different team.

Throws a very catchable ball.

Transferring high schools in order to reclassify from 2026 to 2025, and in doing so, having to sit out this fall, essentially foregoing what would normally have been his junior and senior seasons of high school football seems wild to me. He also missed his freshman season due to having transferred schools, so could enter college having played only one season of high school ball.

I suspect SP+ (and other rating systems) are still taking into account data from last year / preseason ratings. That should get filtered out once we have a few more data points from 2024. Jeff Sagarin, who was the gold standard for a long time (not the shitty version they used in the BCS, but the version that takes into account margin of victory) would usually become "unbiased" (i.e. using only current year data) sometime after week 5 or 6.

To be fair to Wisconsin, not many schools in the country have produced better running backs than the Badgers the last 25 years. Ron Dayne, Jonathan Taylor, Montee Ball, Braelon Allen, Melvin Gordon, etc. A couple of those guys were in-state (Gordon and Allen, who were both 4 star) and some were overlooked coming out of high school, but some were out of state recruits (Dayne who was the no 1 fullback in the country, Montee Ball was 4 star, Taylor was 3 star but the no 24 RB in the country). Wisconsin signed 8 4-star recruits in its 2024 class, all from out of state. They may struggle to match Ohio State, TTUN, Penn State, USC and Oregon, but outside of those schools, they should be able to recruit as well or better than anyone else in the Big Ten.

I didn't watch the game, but looking at the box score, Wisconsin only averaged 4.7 yards per play. That's pretty poor against anyone, let alone that level of competition. I would be concerned about that offense if I were a Badgers fan.

Agree. It starts with the tone from the top. Day and his staff need to learn from past mistakes (such as the two examples against TTUN and Georgia that you mention) and coach with the same mindset of controlled aggression that they are preaching to the players, especially in the high pressure games that make or break the season. Like Day did against Clemson in 2020. Every game. I think he realizes this and will do so.

Lived in London for several years, but always watched at home. Out of curiosity, I googled it and see that the Alumni Association has a Game watch location in London. Here's the link: https://passyunkavenue.com/battersea/ Seems to be an American bar / restaurant close to the US Embassy in Battersea (area of southwest London that's pretty central / easy to get to). Might be a good option. On a side note, I knew / worked with several Brits who loved football, but it was almost always NFL, unless they studied in the US and got into college football. Worked with Penn State and ND alumni, but unfortunately no Buckeye fans.

Who's to say that McCord didn't benefit from the talent around him last year? Let's see how he does this year with less talent at Syracuse. Every position in football is affected by the players around them, the coaching and the system they operate in. With better talent around Will Howard this year, that should help his stats. At Kansas State he was competing with, I would guess, a middle of the pack / slightly above average talent versus his competition. Certainly he had less talent around him than Texas and Oklahoma. At Ohio State, his team will have the majority of the opponents severally outmatched and probably never be at a talent disadvantage.

I suspect the model uses ESPN's FPI which has Ohio State 4th (below Georgia, Oregon and Texas). Penn State is 5th and according to ESPN's model, the game in State College is a coin flip. Vegas and most other experts have Ohio State in the top 2. I think the computer models (and many human experts) are underrating Ohio State's offense because they assume the Buckeyes are getting Will Howard's Kansas State production and aren't factoring in Chip Kelly. Will Howard's production at K-State was similar to McCord's at Ohio State, but I suspect the models don't take into account the relative talent levels around them last year. Howard should get a big boost from playing with future NFL talent at the skill positions this year, and I suspect the models aren't accounting for that. They are predicting the Buckeyes to have a top 20 ish offense. If instead they can be top 10, they have a great chance to be the best team in the country, paired with that defense. Top 5 offense and they might be dominant.

Agree. That's why I was using it as an example to counter the stadium-size argument, since Autzen is a louder and more intimidating place to play than the Big House, despite having about half the capacity.

Stadium size isn't the end-all-be-all. I've never been, but from what I've read from players, coaches, fans, etc. Autzen is consistently ranked among the loudest stadiums in the country, making it a more intimidating place to play than the Big House, for example. Still like the Buckeyes to win, but it will be one of the toughest places they play all year.

Definitely seems fraudulent. Hard to believe that a legitimate business with less than $8m in revenue could post losses of over $200m. That's some huge operating costs for a business of that size.

Last time the Buckeyes played Iowa (2 years ago), they won by 44. Iowa's D did a pretty good job limiting Stroud and the Buckeyes offense (360 total yards) and managed a scoop 6, but Iowa's offense was so awful (158 yards and 6 turnovers) that the field was tilted against them the whole game, resulting in the blow out. Besides losing to the Buckeyes by 44 in 2022, the Hawkeyes also lost by 39 to TTUN in 2021, 31 to Penn State in 2023, 35 to Tennesse in 2023 and 26 to TTUN in 2023, so they have shown a pattern of getting blown out by good teams when their offense is shooting itself in the foot. Iowa figures to be better in 2024 on offense, but I don't think a blow out is out of the question.

"This is all about winning it all this year". Couldn't agree more. It's not every year you have a team so loaded with experienced, high-end talent who could be playing in the NFL. The coaching staff needs to maximize the team's chances of success in 2024. They can start thinking about 2025 in January. QB2 is one hit away from becoming QB1. We've seen this play out before (2014).