Would have loved we stuck with that for any of the final 3 snaps post OPI. We acted like we didn't have a TO and tried to work the sideline on every route, and nothing was open.  Meanwhile, middle of the field...

No, it wouldn't be the worst thing, as long as we win out.  But as outlined in the article above, it would require Wisconsin and/or Illinois winning out, neither of which is going to happen.

If we don't make the B1G championship, that means we lose another regular season game, and that just won't do.

A game is "top 5" when it supports your narrative according to most on this site. 

If we beat #3 Penn State on the road this year, I guarantee you many on this site will discount it. 

Thank you, this is my point.  We complain about this with SEC/rankings bias all the time, but we apparently do it to ourselves as a fanbase too.  If we beat a top 5 ND/Penn St or whoever may find their way into that criteria at the moment, it gets discounted because we exposed them and they weren't that good. And if we had came out and flexed on Oregon and played the clean game we expected and won by a couple scores, the narrative would be much the same.  Well, Oregon's not that good this year.

Bottom line, ND was inarguably ranked #5 for that 2022 game, and I am pretty sure we shut them out / won the 4th quarter that night.  You can't pull stats like these and intentionally omit a game that meets the criteria. You have to include it, point out that ND wasn't truly a top 5 team, and say even with them in there, the numbers don't look good.   But that's not what was done here, and it annoys me. 

The #5 seed is always going to be a very cushy spot.  Because you are almost guaranteed to get matched up with 2 straight "over-seeded" opponents due to the conf champ/inclusion rules.  First, you get the G5 sacrificial lamb in your stadium, who some years will be a decent foe (this year's Boise St) or some years will be totally overmatched (last year's Liberty) and nowhere deserving of the #12 ranking.  Then, you get the worst (likely P4) conference champion auto-bid.  Which again most years is going to be a team who would NOT be ranked #4, but more like #8-12, if they didn't have the conference championship to move them into top 4.

But your luck runs out there, as you're highly likely to get a true bona fide #1 team in the semis.

Did I make it through this entire thread and nobody pointed out it's missing ND 2022. They were in the top 5. Now sure, overrated, I get it. But intentionally omitting a game from and already cherry picked data set seems pretty disingenuous to me. That said, the trend in the 4 games that really mattered is quite alarming, and Knowles and Day both need to look themselves in the mirror and ask why it's happening and what they could do to fix it.

Howard's ability to manage the pocket and avoid the rush is definitely masking what was apparently very poor blocking.  A guy like McCord gets sacked 5-6 times in that game.

"I don't think he even had the chance to do the ball was snapped so quickly which was very strange."

Could this possibly just maybe be construed as positive credit towards Day and the coaching staff to know it was questionable and to run another play as quickly as humanly possible?  Nah, we don't do that around here.

Right, and it is a catch 22.  On the cases where we beat a MSU by 50, it makes them out to be a "fraud", so that game does not count in the minds of many.  Where if we play the same team closer, they look better, but now it is because we suck.  

Here's the huge difference about equating the INT on the 1st drive of the game, and the OPI on the last drive.  We know for fairly certain if no OPI is called, OSU is going to run 1 or 2 more plays and center the ball for a 35-38 yd FG to win the game.  So you can pretty much say, that call had the most impact on the game.  Maybe we make the FG, maybe we don't, but from that range, I'd call it 75-80% it is going through the uprights.

The INT reversal in the 1st quarter, you can't simply just subtract 7 pts from OSU's final score and say that's what would've happened.  It was the 1st drive of the game.  It leads to a total butterfly effect for the rest of the game, field position of ensuing possessions change, coaching decisions based on time and score change. We just don't know how the game would have played out from there.

Agreed on the unacceptable part. Except the author of the stat skipped out on ND 2022, who was ranked #5.  Overrated probably?  But you can't make that stat and then pick and choose which games count.  I believe we got several stops that game in the 4th quarter.

I see a bunch of 2nd-5th rounders out there.  Not necessarily a bad thing, we just don't have any sure fire top 10-15 picks.

To sort of answer the question, I will go with 2.  Who that is, I don't know just yet.

Badgers are playing a little better. Something could happen there.

I don't really believe Oregon and PSU are head and shoulders above the rest of the B1G, so everyone assuming they are going win out would be foolish. There's always chaos.

Between those 4, and the way they are currently tracking, is a mix of 8-4 to 9-3 teams.  Michigan could be 7-5.  Yes I think it is fair to assume 2 of those 4 end the season in the top 25.

Wrong, both of those plays were zone, and Burke just got roasted on his deep 3rd which he can't let happen. The 2nd one we dropped 9 into coverage underneath because I think it was 3rd and medium.  Burke just had terrible eye discipline and cement in his shoes all night.

Yep, the play before the garbage OPI, I remember turning to my son and saying - see that should have been DPI right there, but Smith is too strong and won't let it look like he was fouled on the play. Contrast to Stewart on Oregon who any time the ball was in the air and he was touched at all, would slow down and throw his arms up in the air to get the call.

It reminded me of a youth soccer game in a lot of ways.

First thing, yes it was a bad call, but only from the sense of "letting them play" for the majority of the game, including the snaps immediately before where DPI could have been called.

I am not sure where this "it can only be OPI if the ball in the air" thing is coming from.  That's not the rule.  That only applies to the defensive player and his ability to contact the receiver before the ball is in the air and it not be OPI.  The offensive player cannot shove players downfield, otherwise you'd have full on picking and shoving of defenders will the QB holds the ball waiting for receivers to come open.

I read somewhere it was removed from the rulebook around 2020, for whatever reason.

Tend to agree. I think it is hard to know who was responsible for who.  Simon looked like he too was going after the RB, but got partially blocked on his way.  Which didn't matter since the RB didn't get the ball and the QB was out the gate.  Bottom line is both JT and Simon went RB, when obviously one should have taken the QB.  It is more typical for the DE to take QB since that is who the QB is reading.  But if everyone is on the same page and it is called to scrape/exchange then the DE can crash on the RB and "trick" the QB to keep, while the LB is already well on his way to replace the DE on the outside and make the tackle for minimal gain.  Bottom line, we don't know who screwed up, but it was a screw up nonetheless.

so now the previous 35 years are Day's fault as well?

I agree. He was money all game.

My over-analysis of the final 30 seconds has me wishing Chip would have called his number on a QB draw or power play there. Whether before the fateful OPI call, or even after.  I expect it would have been a nice gain/safe call in that spot and we're kicking a make-able FG.

It has been strongly hinted at that FOX has first pick of the B1G slate that week. So while it is not official official, it is highly highly likely it is a Big Noon game.

No surprise here.  Just like it won't be when it is announced next week that the @PSU is Big Noon as well.

People's mindset and expectations need to change.  CFB continues to move closer to the NFL model.  As these power 2 conferences grow, and the playoff expands, the challenge of winning a regular season title, let alone a national title, grows exponentially. NIL has changed the game as far as the distribution of talent.  Undefeated seasons through to a national championship are going to become extremely rare.

Texas does seem like the real deal.  But I would say any of the other top tier teams OSU could take down on a neutral field.

Sark is an interesting comparison for the Day haters. Offensive coordinator guru type.  Failed (much worse) than anything Day has done in his first go rounds at Washington and USC.  Goes back to coordinating under Saban before landing at Texas and losing more games in year 1 than Day almost has in his entire career.  But after all that, they are #1 and the next greatest thing.  For the time being anyway.

10-2 with two (presumably close) road losses to Oregon and PSU, who will both be top 3 teams then, and home wins against Iowa, Nebraska, IU, and TCUN would absolutely get OSU in.  That's not the most impressive resume, but by default 2 of those 4 teams will be ranked wins, maybe 3. Likely get in as a #9-#11 road team in the first round though. I mean, just look historically, it's way more likely a 9-3 power team is in the top 12 than a 10-2 power team is outside of the top 12.  It would take some really weird results in the other conferences to get left out in that scenario.

I am by no means advocating we mess around and find out.  Because also, if we lose to PSU, then I think any chances of beating (insert top tier SEC team) on the road in the first round of the playoffs is about nil.