By far? They didn't even win their conference that year...
DefenceWinsChampionships
from NE Ohio
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This is what people fail to understand. Often times the only difference in the perception of a coach is the breaks they’re lucky enough to catch. Day gets all kinds of heat, some of it rightfully so, but Kirby gets a pass mostly because he’s gotten a bit lucky.
Serious question: how many titles would Smart have if JaMo doesn’t get hurt in 21, and Harrison doesn’t get hurt in 22? That isn’t even to bring up other big calls that went their way.
Those are things that have a major impact on a game that have no relation to how good of a coach Day, Smart, and Saban are. Games between evenly matched teams are mostly a toss up. Who wins those games is often determined by coaching, or by who makes the big play in crunch time (which we have mostly failed to do). But those outcomes can also be assisted by who benefits from a missed call, or who suffers the most significant injury. This is not to put all of Day’s failings on luck, that would be ridiculous, but there’s no denying that a lot of Smart’s public perception is driven by wins he might not have if the teams he beat didn’t get snakebitten.
It's not necessarily that I blame Day for the loss (perhaps poor wording), and if this were a year ago, I might have leaned more toward your line of thinking. I'm saying that this loss ultimately falls on him. Offensively, there was not a single egregious decision that was made. But Day isn't solely absorbed by the offense on gamedays anymore. He stepped away from that role to be more of a CEO, and to have a larger impact on the defensive side of the ball. So if the defense isn't put in a position to succeed, that ultimately falls to the man at the top. Last year, I would have pinned the blame for this loss on Knowles, exactly as I pinned the blame for last year's Michigan loss on Knowles. This year, Day was supposed to make a difference on that end, and he didn't.
You're entitled to that opinion. I don't agree with it, but that's fine.
You're right about Oregon having a legit gripe about the non-INT if we had won the game. But trying to equate the volume of officiating mistakes that happened in the Clemson game to a single impact call is not comparing apples to apples, especially when the officials cost us points against Oregon as well.
Out of all the arguments I have seen against Day/Knowles, this this by far the most condemning. While the totality of these numbers are misleading with it being proven that Michigan cheated in AT LEAST 2022, the fouth quarter struggles are very real under day. Even removing the 2022 Michigan game, which I believe is fair, we have been outscored 33-13 over those other three games. Allowing 7 straight big game scoring drives on defense is the most unacceptable stat I've ever heard, and frankly, Knowles should probably lose his job over it.
Scoring only 13 points in those 7 drives is also an indictment, but it's also reasonable to understand that the defense has been putting an unfair amount of pressure on the offense in big games, and it isn't like the offense is completely turtling and going 3 and out. Out of those seven drives, we scored points on three of the four drives that weren't end-of-game, two-minute-drill-style drives. Then of the three two-minute drill drives, the offense responded by moving the ball 43, 44, and 49 yards respectively, and put us in position to win the game. The fact that we didn't win any of them is still gross, and legitimate complaints can be made about Day's inability to put 7's on the board in big games instead of 3's, but I can't honestly look at any of these games and blame the offense when the defense has looked as incompetent it has.
Well there are no excuses for 2024.
I'm not saying there are. All I said was this year isn't over, so let's put the pitchforks down until we see how this plays out. If Day loses to PSU, fails to make the Big 10 Championship game, and drops a first-round playoff game, that will 100% be an indictment on him. But if he beats PSU, makes the championship game, and exacts revenge on Oregon, then he redeems himself. So let's see how this goes.
There are no juggernaut teams.
You're right. There aren't. And that includes Ohio State. This team is a really good, really veteran team, that should have the tools to beat anyone on any given night. But they also have exactly one star-level player on defense (Downs), no star-level players on the Oline, and a QB who, while pinpoint in the short-to-intermediate range, lacks the ability to take the top off a defense. Currently, this is a hyped, but flawed team. This is not 2019 OSU or LSU. It is no 2020 Bama or 2022 Georgia or OSU. Is it good enough to get the job done in a year where those teams don't exist? Absolutely, but it will likely require a bit of luck in addition to better coaching. And if it doesn't it won't necessarily be because Day is a shitty coach. In order to avoid that conclusion though, he's going to have to win something of consequence this year. I still personally believe he will, and if he does, I hope some of the "fire Day" crowd calms the hell down, even if they don't end up with the ultimate prize. If he doesn't, if he flames out against PSU and in a first-round playoff game, then you might also have me coming around to your side of things.
That's cute. It's also odd when I'm not just blowing perfume up Day's ass for the entire post. There are legitimate reasons (go ahead and call them excuses) for some of his failings, but I'm trying to be objective and call him out for his failures as well. I call 2023 Michigan a failure, despite what others could use as excuses. I call showing up unprepared for the Cotton bowl a complete failure, despite our offense not having a chance in that game once Brown was injured. And I put this weekend's loss on Day, as, in a close game where each team made mistakes and caught breaks, it tends to be coaching that makes the difference.
I say I understand the frustration because three of the four things I believe you can objectively be upset about have happened in the last calendar year. But it's also true that he has shown to be a good coach, and if not for catching some shitty breaks with his best teams, he likely already has a title or two to his name. Unfortunately, bad breaks happen, and he doesn't have those titles, but that doesn't mean he never will.
Next time, try adding a reasonable argument or counterpoint to the discussion, rather than responding like a teenager...
So, according to you, nobody Day has beaten in 5 1/2 seasons has been any good (otherwise they would have beat his weak ass), and he gets no credit for being a good coach for any of those wins. Also, the top five win over ND doesn't count because they were also weak and overrated.
In 2019 he had wins over teams that finished ranked 8th, 10th, and 14th in the rankings. Doesn't matter. All soft.
In 2020 he had wins over teams ranked 2nd, 11th, and 14th. Fine, we beat Clemson, but that credit should go to Wilson because it better suits my argument! Also, the others were weak ass teams!
In 2021 he had wins over teams ranked 10th and 11th. Who cares.
In 2022 the schedule was weak, but he still beat the 11th ranked team. PSU, pffft...
In 2023 he beat the 10th and 16th teams. Same old, same old. Who cares.
So let's look at this a different way. Who are the best non-OSU college football teams over the past 5 years? I'll go with 2019 LSU, 2020 Bama, and 2022 Georgia. After that, you get a big blur of teams that are mostly similar, but those three stand out.
Now who were Day's best teams at Ohio State? The ones with a legitimate argument to crash that top-3? That would have to be 2019 and 2022. And what happened to those two teams? One was objectively cheated out of a matchup with that LSU team by officials (even you admit as much), and the other was proven to have been cheated against by Michigan, before losing by a point to that Georgia team while running a skeleton crew Offense. Neither of these outcomes are the fault of Ryan Day. It's some serious bad luck in terms of officiating and injuries. It's also bad luck that his best teams have come during years when there was another juggernaut in play. But there is nothing in either of these years for anyone to complain about in regards to his coaching.
So what about his other four teams? Well, one (2020) went undefeated before running into the third, and maybe best team on the aforementioned list, while also landing a playoff win and Big 10 title. Sucks to lose a championship game. But no complaints.
Another (2021), lost to the 14th ranked team during CJ's second ever game (after which, half this fan base - you know the ones, the ones who have it in their nature to want better, and that good isn't good enough - wanted him benched for McCord. Shame that didn't happen, amiright?), and then were once again cheated out of a Big 10 title by Michigan. Oh, that team also had a historically bad defense by our standards. Suck? Yup. Day's fault? IDK. With hindsight, I can definitely pin the Combs hire on him. But his losses are reasonable - young QB's lose games, and it's really difficult to beat a team who has elaborately cheated you.
His last complete season (2023), involved a single loss. One that, despite Michigan's cheating might be Day's worst. Even if TTUN was still cheating, there is no way they were as effective/efficient at it without their point-man. We also had time to change minor details (changing the entire playbook isn't possible, the smaller details, sure). Day should have beat Michigan. And if he did, maybe last year is the year they win it all. It's okay to be pissed at him for that. But outside of the Combs hire, that's the first black mark I see on his resume, and even that is questionable in reality. That 2023 team was led by the worst OSU QB since Bauserman. Egbuka was nowhere near himself. The O-line was meh at best. And that defense, while sound, had exactly zero star players. Yet despite all that, we were still only 6 points worse than the eventual champions*, on their turf, in a game where we were likely still being cheated against, even if the effects were minimized... Perspective is a wild thing... Then there was the Cotton bowl, and honestly, I have no words for that. It was clear that nobody gave a shit. So despite not having a chance with Lincoln at QB, you'll get no argument from me for being mad at Day for that as well.
That leads us to this year. A 1-point loss, on the road against a team that will absolutely finish the regular season undefeated. It was a good game. The offense was solid. The defense was not. We caught some breaks and so did they. We still had a chance to win, but we didn't. Games like this happen and it's fair to pin the L on Day. But a loss like that isn't unacceptable, especially if he bounces back to beat PSU and Michigan and earn a rematch. If he doesn't, then go ahead and be pissed, but I think that's likely how things will play out.
So to recap: what is there to actually be pissed about, other than being pissed for the sake of being pissed? A bad DC hire which he promptly corrected. A 6-point road loss to an eventual champ* who was likely still cheating. A no-show for a meaningless bowl game. And a 1-point road loss to the current #2 team in the country. That's four things over five and a half seasons. And while the feeling may be amplified because three of them have occurred in the last calendar year, there is still no reason to assume he can't get the job done, so maybe put the pitchfork away until this season finishes playing out. I understand the frustration of the last few years, but at the same time, much of what transpired (Michigan scandal) was out of Day's control, and that's something all the detractors fail to understand as well.
I suspect he’ll beat the #3 team in the country here in a few weeks. But the antagonists here will probably just say Penn St is overrated rather than giving Day his due. That’s just how this stuff works…
Where are all the TTUN games in your list? TTUN was in the Top 5 in ‘21-‘23 and #13 in ‘19. TTUN must be included in Top 5/Big games. Your list excluded 3 TTUN games.
I quite literally gave a disclaimer in the opening paragraph… And the 2019 Michigan game wasn’t analyzed because it wasn’t a top-5 matchup.
I think this is apples and oranges. In the Clemson game, as I said, literally every major turning point went against Ohio State. It was a ridiculously one-sided affair. On the Oregon game, there were bad calls and bad bounces, but it wasn’t at all one sided. The no INT was big, but so was the OPI. The missed field goal was big, but so was the lucky onside kick. That was a game where everything mostly evened out. That’s why I said I held that game against Day.
Absolutely. It comes down to what you blame Day for.
- I don’t blame him for losing to cheaters, so all three Michigan losses are gone.
- I don’t blame him for the 2019 Clemson game that was stolen by officiating.
- While you can question a decision or two during the Georgia game, you can find things during any loss to question - that’s the nature of a loss. So I don’t blame him for the Georgia game. Conversely, I believe he coached his ass off in that game in the face of all kinds of adversity.
- I blame Day for exactly three things: Hiring Combs as a DC. Getting blown out by Bama in a game he should have kept closer, and this loss to Oregon - which was not a bad loss.
These three things are not enough to make any sweeping assessment of his skills as a coach in big games.
Counterpoint, TCU was likely only scouted once or twice. No way Michigan had their entire sign catalog. They also had multiple weeks to change their signs and practice new ones. It's much harder to do that in season when you're playing a game every saturday.
No issue at all with the pass call. Howard was cooking, and we were averaging less than 2 yards per carry in the second half. It's easy to second guess the coaching staff when something goes wrong, but "running the ball" in that moment is exactly what people were pissed at Day for against Georgia in the playoffs. Sure we were in field goal range (45 yarder), but completing a pass to the 20 (like we did) makes that field goal a lot less stressful. If you run the ball there and it gets blown up (like it had for the enter second half), or God forbid we take a loss. Now you're burning your last time out for a play that was likely to net you only a yard or two. Once again, Howard was shredding on that drive. Choosing to let him continue to cook was one of the least surprising moves of the game.
We can play this game all day on both sides. Imagine if Judkins doesn't fumble and we drive down the field and go up 10-0 or 14-0, sucking all the life out of their stadium in the process. The game might look completely different.
Imagine if their ridiculous line-drive kick is another foot to the right, missed our front-line player, and roles out of bounds. We get the ball on a short field and score (like we did the next time we had the ball anyway) and go up two scores, 21-12. The game might look completely different.
The only time it's fair to play the what-if game is if literally every defining moment/call goes against one team (See 2019 OSU v Clemson). Otherwise, both teams had things go right, and both teams had things go wrong. Most of the time it averages out in the end.
He’s lost to Michigan three straight times
My God do I wish people would stop saying this. Michigan either cheated, and those losses don't count. Or they didn't and you blame those losses on Day. You absolutely cannot have it both ways.
So what is it? Do you believe Michigan cheated and gained an unfair advantage, or don't you?
There were definitely issues with the buckeyes that need to be addressed. Burke picked a bad time to have the worst game of his career and the defense has developed a bad habit of turtling during any big game. Also outside of back to back runs by Henderson, the Oline was putrid at opening any holes in the run game.
But at the same time, fans trying to pretend this team isn’t a playoff caliber team capable of beating anyone on any given week are crazy. Particularly in a season where every team seems flawed. I mean we’re pissed at the D for letting up 31 points to an explosive Oregon team, when at the same time, Georgia just let up 31 to Miss St, PSU got picked apart by USC for huge swaths of the game, Miami looks like they could literally lose any game at any time, and, outside of about 20 minutes to open the game against Georgia, Bama looks awful - nearly losing to USF, SC, and actually losing to vandy.
We’ll regroup and adjust. Zen will get better at LT with playing time. Burke is unlikely to ever have a game like he just had again. And in three weeks we’ll put the paper Tiger (Lion?) that is Penn St through a shredder. Then everyone will be able to take a nice deep breath.
Dude, we lost the turnover battle, lost an onside kick, and still would have won the game, on the road, against a top 5 team, if not for a questionable OPI call.
PSU should have lost to an awful USC team.
Can we please stop acting like we were just curb stomped by Maryland???
Holy freaking SQUEEZE!!!!
Well, Clase has 5 outs to get for redemption…
I don’t understand the “disadvantage” thing either. If people in dark coaching circles are really freely passing out complete sets of opponent signals, wouldn’t Michigan still be free to use that info? Couldn’t they also still try their best to steal signals in game, like everyone else does?
Or are they saying that 1) Michigan is so incompetent that they can’t still signs in game with anywhere near the effectiveness of other teams? 2) That the others in the dark coaching circles of info exchange hate Michigan so much that they’re willing to work with literally anyone else, but not them? Or 3) They’re just not smart enough to access said dark coaching circle that everyone else knows how to access without Connor?
I'm sure you'll always get a handful that quit mid year
I'm actually not so sure about that. Once revenue sharing hits, players will have to weigh the options: Collect the check, or preserve eligibility. Because I'm fairly certain the school won't continue sharing revenue with anyone that leaves the team mid-season.
I'm not gonna lie, those look clean. They aren't going to prevent Oregon from loosing, but they look clean.
I forgot this one,
5) He claims Ohio State has like, 8 guys signaling plays, but then claims that he was so good at his job, he was able to not only determine who the real signaler was, but he decoded an entire sophisticated offensive system within three drives! That’s some Rainman level shit right there!
And 6) He’s that good at in game stealing (as explained above) yet still felt the need to send people to nearly half a dozen Ohio state games to advance scout. (Even though, you know, the advanced scouting wouldn’t really help)